The next Balkan war will be coming soon. It will be between Serbia and Kosoov; but other regional actors may get involved. It is unlikely to catalyse a new war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It will be a short war, with a reasonably satisfactory outcome in the regional pokiticsl environment; but it will leave Serbia a parish, deprived of much-needed international funding and support, and it might generate international sanctions against Serbia. As a result, Serbia will become an even more troubled country, sinking further into the influence of criminal gangs involved in drug trafficking.
Do not think this is fanciful. Here is a list of regional Balkan wars in the last 200 years. The region is prone to periodic wars that are notoriously bloody. And we are due for one. The last one of sibstance ended in 1998, some 26 years ago. Aside from the Communist period in Yugoslavia under the charismatic ethnic balancing figure of Kosip Broz Tito (1945-1980) of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, who deflected regional conflicts by disbursing money borrowed from international powers that neither he nor any of his successors paid back, Balkan wars tend to occur at least once every 25 years. Hence we overdue for a New one.
This new war will cause substantial economic disruption and political division in Western Europe; but the west will be reluctant to intervene promptly (as they always are in Balkan affairs) and hence Western Europe will pay a high price for this next Balkan war, particularly as the costs of intervention later are substantially higher than the costs of intervention early.
Here is a list of Balkan wars in the last 200 years:
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The political dynamic rreponsible for the new Balkan war, which we anticipate to commence in about one to two years, is declining Russian influence in the region unfilled by any western influence to replace it and hence creating a power vacuum. If this proposition surprises you, let us explain our reasoning.
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